Cover photo taken from Tom’s Guide.
A month of football is in the books, and things have been as unpredictable as ever. Very little is separating most teams in the league, and that’s showing in how mediocre my picks have been. I had another run-of-the-mill outing in Week 4, going 9-7 to bring my season total to 33-30-1. Any and all improvement is a good thing. Let’s try to do better this week.
Broncos 20-13 Colts 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
This is about as awful of a Thursday nighter as we could ask for. It’s made even worse by Jonathan Taylor being out for Indianapolis. Not like he’s doing anything productive this season anyways. The Broncos will also be without their star RB as they’ve lost Javonte Williams for the season with a knee injury, but I feel far more comfortable picking them thanks to their superior roster across the board. For all the woes of their offense, the other side of the ball has been fairly solid all year. It certainly helps to have one of the best homefield advantages going your way as well.
Packers 26-14 Giants 
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network
Imagine telling someone a month ago that both of these teams would come into this game with the same record. Despite that being the case, we all know how much better the Packers are. The Giants may be 3-1, but that record holds no weight at all. They are in for a rude awakening in London. It doesn’t help that they might have to rely on a third-string QB with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor nursing injuries. Against a defense as elite as Green Bay’s that spells disaster. This could be ugly.
Bills 28-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
While I understand the sentiment behind Vegas making the Bills a two-touchdown favorite, it’s a little too hard to see it coming to fruition. This isn’t college football, after all. I do think this should still be a resounding win for Buffalo. It remains to be seen what Kenny Pickett can do for Pittsburgh, but I think the team will play with a higher energy level in his first start. Going up against a defense like Buffalo’s will be tough for him, but I think they can put up some points. For that reason, they should at least cover a 14-point spread. But their defense still can’t stop a nosebleed, and the Bills should tear them apart.
Browns 23-20 Chargers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
How the Browns are an underdog at home against a team as thin as the Chargers are is quite confusing to me. Yes, they threw the game away last week and they didn’t put together their best game on either side of the ball. But the Chargers nearly blew a three-possession lead against the worst team in the league and didn’t look all too convincing either. Now, they have to come out east and play a very solid Cleveland team. I just don’t see them winning with the current state of their roster. The Browns should be able to bounce back and put together a more complete performance to notch a huge win at home.
Vikings 26-10 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
No need to overthink this one. The Vikings have had three weeks of wacky, tough games against solid teams. This is a tune-up that they desperately need. Their defense will finally look like they did in Week 1 thanks to playing the worst offense in football, and their offense will likely explode with some big numbers. Divisional games definitely tend to be close, but I just don’t see a world where this one is.
Lions 24-21 Patriots 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
I have absolutely no idea what’s going on with the Patriots at QB, and I don’t think anyone else does either. That makes it damn near impossible to pick them in this game. The Lions also boast the NFL’s best offense, although Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift will likely still be out. But, Jamaal Williams is as good of a RB2 as you could ask for, and the rest of the pass-catchers are more than capable, as we saw last week. The Patriots hung tough against the Packers, but this one just feels different, especially with the uncertainty at QB. Another close loss seems imminent.
Saints 23-17 Seahawks 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
The Seahawks have been playing better than the Saints as of late, but going into the Superdome and winning is an extremely tall task. The health of key New Orleans players is still in question, but last week showed us that their depth isn’t too big of an issue. Chris Olave has been great in the absence of Michael Thomas and Andy Dalton isn’t the worst backup in the world. This team has had some rotten luck as of late and needs a big home win like this to get their season back on track. Not many people have been able to stop Geno Smith and the Seattle offense (what a sentence), but I think the Saints can get it done.
Dolphins 22-14 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Dolphins could be starting literally anyone at the QB in this game and they’d still win with ease. I will admit that the Jets are playing solid football right now, but this is their toughest test of the season thus far. I fail to see the possibility that they’re able to slow down Miami’s offense or move the ball on their defense. Zach Wilson looked solid in his return, but not good enough to inspire confidence in him taking down a defense like this. I like Teddy Bridgewater and his electric WRs to cut through the New York secondary all game long for a nice bounce-back win.
Buccaneers 30-17 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Like so many other teams I’ve mentioned, the Falcons are playing solid football right now, but this is just way too talk of a task for them. They won last week with Marcus Mariota completing just seven passes all game long. That is not going to fly against a team like the Buccaneers who are absolutely seething after their primetime embarrassment on Sunday night. I think they’re going to bounce back in a huge way and blow their division rival out of the water. Even with Tom Brady dealing with some injuries on his throwing arm, the Bucs should be just fine. They will dominate on both sides of the ball no matter what.
Titans 23-16 Commanders 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Believe it or not, I was pretty close to picking us here. I don’t know why, but this just feels like one of those games we win to get the fans back into the season before going on a 10-game losing streak. I just couldn’t talk myself into actually picking it. All I had to do was picture the Titans defensive front against Washington’s thin, porous offensive line and Derrick Henry running against our defense to be assured that Tennessee is going to win this game. They’ve been slowly but surely playing better football. The Commanders are going in the complete opposite direction, and this should be another awful loss that could hopefully bring some change.
Jaguars 28-16 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Like I said the other day, if the Jaguars were playing in clear weather on Sunday, they probably could have won. Alas, they suffered a bitter loss, and now get to take it out on the measly Texans. Good for them. This one should be a blowout from start to finish, and the Jags offense should put up huge numbers. The defense is also going to look a lot better when they’re not facing the best rushing team in the NFL in a monsoon. This is as perfect of a scenario for a bounce-back win as you could ask for.
49ers 24-10 Panthers 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
The Panthers are spiraling out of control and are one of the worst teams in the sport that will likely fire their head coach Matt Rhule in the coming weeks. Maybe it’ll be after this blowout loss at the hands of the 49ers. San Francisco is riding the high of their huge primetime win against the Rams last week and are playing with an extreme level of confidence, especially defensively. This is the #1 total and scoring defense in the league that’s absolutely suffocating everyone they play. It doesn’t take much to suffocate Baker Mayfield and the Carolina offense. The Niners offense won’t have to do too much against an admittedly solid Panthers defense to win this one with ease.
Cowboys 20-17 Rams 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
That’s right, I’m rolling with Cooper Rush yet again. The Cowboys just give me way more to like than the Rams do, and that has been on display for several weeks now. Dallas’ offense has been more than competent with Rush at QB, and their defense is playing some of the best football of any other team in the league right now, giving up the 3rd fewest points in the league. The Rams offense has looked dreadful all year long, and I definitely see that continuing against a very good defense. Their offensive line has been the worst in the league, and the Cowboys defensive front will feast all game long. It will be far too much to overcome, so all Dallas has to do offensively is put up enough points, and they’ll be just fine.
Cardinals 27-24 Eagles 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
I know what you’re thinking. What on Earth is the merit to picking an upset like this? And honestly, I don’t really know. It’s just my gut feeling. Every Cardinals-Eagles game is guaranteed to be wacky and wild, and I see this one falling right in line with its predecessors. I think the Cardinals are playing much better in recent weeks and shouldn’t be written off at home despite the quality of their opponent. If there’s any QB that can give the Eagles great defense fits, it has to be Kyler Murray with his mobility. Arizona’s offense has been pretty solid even without DeAndre Hopkins, and their defense has been making tons of plays this season. Combine all of that with the fact that this season has already seen a ton of parity and I just think this game has all the makings of an upset. Obviously the Eagles are the far better team on both sides of the ball, but anything can happen on any given Sunday in this league.
Ravens 23-20 Bengals 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
It may not seem like it, but this game is actually one of the biggest of the year thus far. Both of these teams sit at 2-2 with two pretty inexcusable losses, the winner goes to 3-2 and sits atop the division, and the loser goes to 2-3 with a steep climb back up. A lot is at stake here. It’s really hard to pick against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson at home where they’ve been so great in primetime. This is a team that has trailed for all of 14 seconds all season long. I think the Bengals are playing much better after their 0-2 start, but this may be too tough of an environment for them to win in. I think their offense will put up plenty of numbers, but so will Baltimore’s. I think they walk this one off at the buzzer to atone for last week and get a much-needed return to the win column. w
Chiefs 27-17 Raiders 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
The Chiefs are arguably the NFL’s best team and put the league back on notice with last week’s huge win on Sunday night in Tampa. Now, they come back home for another primetime clash against a Raiders team that only just got their first win. So, I think we know how this one is going to go. I do think Vegas will put up a good fight in this one, as they seemingly always do against Kansas City. It’s a divisional game on primetime, so I think a blowout seems a bit far-fetched. But the Chiefs should be able to keep things under control for the majority of the game and win comfortably. Their offense will obviously be flashy, but look for their defense to make some huge plays to shut down the Raiders offense and shut things down late in the game.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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