Cover photo taken from People.
October is somehow already upon us as we approach the end of the first quarter of the NFL season. The 2022 campaign has been off to a blazing start through three weeks, and this one promises to keep that going. Last week was perhaps my worst of all time, going a putrid 7-9 to bring my season total to 24-23-1. Surely this is the week it gets better. Surely.
Dolphins 21-20 Bengals 
Thursday, 8:15 PM EST, Prime Video
Week 4 kicks off with a banger on TNF: a great game with even better uniforms. These are two of the brightest young teams in football, although they’ve had nearly polar opposite starts to their seasons. Miami is the AFC’s lone unbeaten team coming off two mammoth wins over the Bills and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bengals sit at a measly 1-2, waiting until last week to get their first win over the lowly Jets. Regardless of that, I think this will be a tight game throughout and should be great. Vegas seems to like the Bengals by virtue of being at home, and it’s hard to picture Cincy losing in that white-out environment. But I’ve seen them struggle so hard against great defenses in their first two games. The Dolphins have a defense that just kept Josh Allen and the Bills at bay. While I think the matchup between Miami’s offense and Cincy’s defense is fairly even, I think the flip side will prove to be the difference. I see the Fins defense making enough plays to close things out late in this one.
Vikings 26-21 Saints 
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network
Our first London game of the year is one that looks great on paper, but might not be as good as we thought. These are two teams I’ve been pretty confident in, but haven’t given me much to like since their respective opening wins. They are both beat up and now have to deal with the long trip across the pond. So, I have to give the slight edge to the better team, which is clearly Minnesota. They didn’t play their best game last week, but they showed me infinitely more than New Orleans, who was absolutely dead from start to finish in an embarrassing loss. I just trust the Vikings more on both sides of the ball to make the plays necessary to win the game. It would help them (and my fantasy team) quite a lot if Justin Jefferson can get going again, especially with Dalvin Cook nursing an injury.
Browns 23-17 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
I actually think this game has some potential to be good. On paper it looks dreadful, but these are fun teams. The Browns are actually good and the Falcons are always feisty. At home, I don’t think it’s impossible for the Falcons to pull an upset. Their offense is competent enough to put points on the board. But I think Cleveland’s defense is too stout, even though they’ll likely be without Myles Garrett. In any case, I think the Browns are too solid offensively to be stopped by Atlanta, whose defense has been gashed all year long.
Cowboys 28-16 Commanders 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
We’re unveiling the all-black alternates in this game. That’s cool. Perhaps it’ll make this somewhat easier to watch (spoiler alert: it won’t). I don’t care who plays or doesn’t play for Dallas because our guys won’t be able to do a thing against them. They can’t do anything against anyone. I just want to get this blowout out of the way so I can enjoy the rest of my Sunday.
Lions 30-20 Seahawks 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
You can bank on there being a good amount of points scored in this game. The Lions are one of three teams in the league averaging over 30 points per game, with the other two being Baltimore and Buffalo. They could easily be 3-0 on the back of their offense. Seattle’s defense is pretty porous, so Detroit should be able to do their usual damage. I don’t think it will be enough for a Geno Smith-led offense to overcome, but the Lions defense has been very hit or miss. I think this is a great opportunity for them to get their feet under them, but it remains to be seen whether or not they’re capable of it.
Colts 23-20 Titans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Why does every Colts-Titans game feel exactly the same? It’s always so even, almost as if they’re the exact same team. In a situation like this, I’m busting out ol’ reliable and taking Indy by virtue of being the home team. Yes, I’m unoriginal and boring and basic. They also had a much more impressive win last week than Tennessee, so that helps. Moreover, the Colts should be getting a huge boost with Shaq Leonard returning to the lineup on defense. When they’re fully healthy, they’re a competent team. The Titans have yet to show me that.
Giants 17-14 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Nobody wants to watch this game. Nobody is going to watch this game. Alas, it must be picked. By some grace of the football gods, both of these teams are 2-1, which means someone is going to inexplicably be 3-1 by Sunday evening. I’ll take the Giants thanks to Chicago not knowing how to play offense in any capacity. They’re too heavily reliant on their run game, and with David Montgomery potentially being out against a solid Giants front, I don’t know if they’ll be able to ride it to victory. I somehow trust New York to make more plays on offense. That might be the first and last time I say that this year.
Eagles 26-23 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Do people realize how awesome this game is going to be? Not only is it the Doug Pederson revenge game, but these teams are playing some of the most fun football of anyone in the league right now. This might be my most anticipated game of the week. I think it’ll be much closer than Vegas expects, and if Jacksonville was at home, I’d probably pick them to win it. But on the road, an upset seems a bit too out of reach for such a young squad. Philadelphia is just too great on both sides of the ball to lose a game like this. But, I think it’s going to be highly competitive, and an upset wouldn’t shock me at all.
Steelers 19-17 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Steelers don’t feel like a team worth talking about until Kenny Pickett starts for them. Unfortunately for them, that likely won’t happen this week. You’d have to imagine Mitch Trubisky can get the job done at home against the Jets who will be fielding Zach Wilson on one leg at QB. Their defense is still a question mark with injuries across the board, but I’m putting enough faith in them to stop a team like the Jets.
Ravens 27-24 Bills 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
What a blessing it is to have such a heavyweight fight this early in the season. These are two teams with very real championship aspirations that should give us one of the best games of the week, and perhaps the whole year. While I believe the Bills are the better team, something in my gut is telling me that this will be the week that the Ravens finally put together a complete performance. I’m riding the hot hand of Lamar Jackson and trusting their defense to somehow stop Buffalo’s offense, who is coming off an incredibly exhausting game. On paper, you’d expect the Bills offense to tear Baltimore to shreds. The Ravens are giving up the most total and passing yards per game in all of football with 458 and 353 yards respectively. Moreover, Buffalo has the best total defense (214), second best total offense (441), and the best passing offense (329) in the league. So, the stats all favor Josh Allen and company. But like I said, sometimes you just have to trust your gut.
Chargers 24-19 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Chargers better hope they come out and win this game amidst all their injuries. With them being as beat up as they are, it doesn’t get much easier for them than this. Yes, it’s a road trip, but it’s one against the worst team in the league. If they lose, they’ll be in a 1-3 hole with injuries across the board, and they will be in a whole heap of trouble. I don’t see that happening, but they can’t let it happen under any circumstances. All their offense has to do is score a few touchdowns and they’ll be fine.
Cardinals 27-21 Panthers 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
These are two teams that I haven’t been able to read all season long. So, what gives in this matchup? Well, I still don’t really know. The Panthers are favored at home, but I have no doubts that the Cardinals are the better team from top to bottom. Even with Carolina coming off an impressive win, I somehow feel better about Arizona, who hasn’t scored a touchdown in two weeks. I just like their offense too much to pick against them in a game against an inferior opponent.
Packers 28-10 Patriots 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
This game was never going to be close. With Brian Hoyer being under center for the Patriots for the foreseeable future, that might be the case more often than not for them. In this game, it just makes the scoring margin even wider. Green Bay boasts one of the NFL’s best defense that will make scoring impossible for New England. Their offense should also be able to have their way against a Pats D that got sliced and diced last week. This is a perfect opportunity for the Packers’ new offensive pieces to continue coalescing and getting better.
Raiders 21-17 Broncos 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, CBS
This game is an unmitigated disaster on paper. The Broncos have been a mess all year long, and the Raiders have somehow been an even bigger one. This is the NFL’s lone 0-3 team going up against a Denver squad that hasn’t scored more than 16 points in a game this year. So, avert your eyes when this one is on TV. Still, we must pick a winner, so once again, give me the home team. The Raiders have to get off the schneid eventually, and although the Broncos defense is very sharp, this seems like a great opportunity for them to do so.
Buccaneers 24-20 Chiefs 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
This fantastic Super Bowl LV rematch on SNF isn’t even close to the biggest story in Tampa this weekend. We can only hope that it will be safe and that the city is ok. I thought the game would be moved, but the NFL is toughing it out amidst the hurricane. They say it should be out of town by Sunday night, but it still feels a bit weird. I don’t know how much the conditions are going to affect this game, but it wasn’t going to change my pick anyways. The Buccaneers defense is simply incredible, giving up an NFL-best 9 (nine!) points per game through three weeks. Against a Chiefs offense, whose number they clearly have dating back to February 2021, that doesn’t have much big play potential, I think they can limit Patrick Mahomes enough to let their offense win the game. Tom Brady gets his WR1 back as Mike Evans returns from suspension, and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones might be on their way back as well. With enough weapons on offense, I trust the Bucs to put up enough points to win any game that their defense dominates. I’m not saying it’ll be a shutdown performance like the Super Bowl was, but it’ll be enough to win.
49ers 24-17 Rams 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply have Sean McVay and the Rams’ number. They always have, and they probably always will. Yes, LA got the best of San Francisco in their last matchup in the NFC Championship Game, but we all know the Niners should have won. So, at home in primetime in a massive divisional showdown coming off a tough primetime loss, I think the 49ers are going to bring it. I think they’ll give the defending champs everything they have and win this game. More than anything, I believe their defense, which is 2nd in total yards (227) and third in points (12.3) is going to continue playing excellent football and shut down a Rams offense that is lacking in the juice they had a year ago. Even with Jimmy Garoppolo under center on offense, that’s just how this rivalry game always goes (in the regular season, at least).
All stats taken from ESPN.
Raza Talks Sports 