Week 11 Picks

The 2021 season continues to roll on at a lightning-fast pace. It’s hard to believe we’re over halfway done already. There’s still plenty of ball left to be played, and this week promises to be a good one. I had a solid Week 10, going 8-5-1, which brings my season total to 91-57-1. Having a tie in there is so strange. Let’s get into this week’s picks:

Patriots 27-17 Falcons

Thursday, 8:20 PM EST, FOX

Week 11 kicks off with a rematch of one of the best Super Bowls of the century, but the outlook of this game is obviously a lot different. What isn’t different is the fact that the Patriots are still good, as they enter this game as arguably the best team in the AFC. I’ve seen a lot of overreactions to the Pats lately, but I think it’s fair to overreact given how they’ve played. This shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for them. The Falcons just got bulldozed by the Cowboys, and while teams usually bounce back after blowouts, I don’t see their offense doing much against this air-tight New England defense. Mac Jones and the offense should do more than enough against a bad Atlanta defense to get the job done fairly easily.

Bills 23-21 Colts

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

This 2020 playoff rematch is one of the more intriguing matchups of the week. These are two of the hottest teams in the AFC, but neither team feels very hot. They’ve both stumbled as of late, but on their best days, they can both beat anyone else in football. So, what gives in a matchup like this? Honestly? I don’t know. This is a really, really even matchup. Both of these teams have great offenses and are backed by equally great defenses. Part of me wants to lean towards the Colts because they can actually run the football. But, the Bills being at home, and also having Josh Allen at QB, are just enough for me to pick them in a very close, defensive battle. If there’s anything I know, it’s that this will be a close one, and a very fun one to watch.

Ravens 24-16 Bears

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Both of these teams aren’t playing the most ideal football in the world as it stands, but I know they’re both itching to get back on track. Both teams also come in fairly well-rested, as Chicago had a bye last week and Baltimore played on Thursday. To put it plainly, I just don’t see a team as talented as the Ravens dropping back to back games against bad teams. Last week probably lit a fire under them, and I think they’ll bring that fire to the field on Sunday and do just enough to stop a pesky Bears team. It might not be the biggest margin of victory, but this team is simply too good to lay down and die for a second consecutive time. But, I won’t be surprised in the slightest if/when Justin Fields and company make things interesting in the fourth.

Browns 29-17 Lions

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Surely the Browns don’t lose this game, right? The Lions might be starting Tim Boyle in this game for crying out loud. There’s just no way Cleveland loses. Especially after last week’s embarrassment. This is a team that wants to show the league that they’re still capable. Beating up on the winless Lions is a perfect opportunity to do so. If they can’t do that, then it might be time to stick a fork in them.

Titans 28-10 Texans

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Oh look, it’s the best team in the AFC against the worst team in the AFC! Does anything else really need to be said? Whatever the spread is, take Tennessee and forget it. You’re welcome in advance for the free money.

Packers 27-16 Vikings

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

You guys know how I feel about the Vikings. I really like this team, especially offensively, and I think they have what it takes to compete with anyone. But, this might be too tall of a task for them. Not only does Aaron Rodgers historically own this franchise, but the Packers defense is easily the best in football right now, and I can see Kirk Cousins having his monthly stinker in a matchup this tough. I think this is going to be a long day at the office for Minnesota on both sides of the ball, and another great win for the best team in football.

Dolphins 19-14 Jets

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Yuck. Don’t want anything to do with this game. At least the Dolphins have shown in 3 straight weeks now that they’re a team capable of winning games. The Jets have shown that a few times, but with Joe Flacco starting at QB, I just don’t see that being the case this week. Miami’s defense is riding a high after last week, and it won’t take much to shut down this New York offense. As long as their offense does its job, this shouldn’t be too difficult for the Fins. Unfortunately, they almost never do.

Eagles 23-20 Saints

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

I know it sounds weird, but this is honestly my most anticipated game of the week. These are two teams that I feel very strange about for different reasons, and I think this game will answer a ton of questions about both of them. I feel like the Eagles are a lot better than they seem, and they’ve certainly been playing like it. Meanwhile, the Saints are treading water despite all of their injury woes, and have been arguably the unluckiest team in football. I just don’t know how to feel about either team. I’m rolling with the Birds because I like the way they’ve been playing, and momentum is on their side. Not to mention it’s the dome-playing Saints on the road in frigid Philly. It will be a very tough test for Jalen Hurts and his offense against a very stout Saints defense, but I see the Eagles making more plays down the stretch than the Trevor Siemian-led Saints offense to pull this one out in a very, very close game.

Panthers 24-20 Washington

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

Storylines are everywhere. The biggest one is Cam Newton vs. Ron Rivera, which isn’t something that I was expecting to happen this season. Cam’s return to Carolina has been well-documented by now, and while this isn’t some sort of Brady-Belichick-like rubber match, it’s still intriguing. Both of these teams need wins to keep their season afloat, so this should be a hard-fought, close game throughout. I have to take the better team, which has to be the Panthers. They’re getting healthy offensively, and while I have no idea what I’m going to see out of Cam on Sunday, he seems to bring the energy with him wherever he goes, and I think it’s going to lift this offense enough to overcome a Washington defense that looks like it’s returning to form. Moreover, the Panthers defense is riding a high after last week’s shutdown of the Cardinals, and I think they’ll force Taylor Heinicke and the WFT offense into enough mistakes to put this game away late.

49ers 30-14 Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The 49ers appear to be back, although just one game isn’t going to tell us this team’s trajectory for the rest of the season. What I do know is that the Jaguars shouldn’t be too much of a problem for them. They’re not much of a problem for anyone. They’ve been pesky in recent weeks, but I just don’t see that being the case in this game, at least not for its entirety. The Niners offense is playing efficient and physical football, and their defense is making plenty of plays. Against a rookie QB and bad roster, they should have a field day.

Bengals 31-21 Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS

I can definitely see this game being a blowout, but I am done picking blowouts. Never again. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed bye, while the Raiders are sinking in the world’s fastest quicksand. This one doesn’t feel like it’s going to be competitive. It feels like Vegas has nothing to play for, despite being in the thick of the AFC playoff race. And while the Bengals are treading water in the AFC North, I think they know that they can beat anyone if they play their best ball. This will be an inspired bunch looking to make up for back to back embarrassing losses, and I expect them to put it to a reeling Raiders team that is simply lacking any signs of life.

Cowboys 30-27 Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

Well, this is it. Perhaps the most anticipated game of the season with more stars on the field than you can count. It’s going to be fun, no doubt, but our expectations need to be tempered. Everyone is riding the wave of the Chiefs after last week’s mightily impressive win in the desert, but this is still a team that has struggled all season long. The Cowboys, however, have barely struggled at all in 2021, and if last week was any indication, they took their one week of struggle very seriously. While I don’t think Dallas is going to roll in this game, I feel like they’re going to be comfortable for most of it. Patrick Mahomes seemingly has his mojo back, so perhaps he can pull off some magic to make things interesting late in the 4th quarter. But, the Cowboys have shown that they can win in the clutch as well. The better team will win this game.

Cardinals 28-17 Seahawks

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX

The health of Kyler Murray is the NFL’s biggest mystery, and nobody knows when he’ll be back. Could it be this week? Next week? Next month? We don’t have a clue. I put my faith in Arizona’s B-team last week, but they let me down in a big way. However, I believe in second chances. This is a pick that will remain whether Kyler can go or not. The Seahawks are playing absolutely abysmal football with no signs of life on either side of the football. At least I know what the Cardinals are capable of, whether they’re playing starters or backups. This isn’t a team that’s going to drop back to back games to bad teams.

Chargers 23-17 Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC

Sunday Night Football is full of questions and COVID issues. There are a plethora of Steelers players that are either out or in doubt for this game. Moreover, both of these teams are in a very weird spot right now. They both need a win desperately, and a loss will set them back in a huge way in this wild AFC playoff race. This is an easy pick for now, only because it’s likely that Mason Rudolph will start at QB once again for the Steelers. Last week inspired little-to-no confidence in Rudolph, so it’s easy to pick a Justin Herbert-led team to beat him. The Chargers haven’t inspired much confidence either, but surely they won’t lose to Mason Rudolph… right?

Buccaneers 27-20 Giants

Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN

One of the wonders of the world is why the Giants always cause Tom Brady so much trouble. This exact same matchup was on MNF last season, and New York very well could have won that game. Now, the Bucs are coming in off a poor loss to Washington, whereas the Giants are coming off a bye. All the makings are here for another upset. However, it’s just too hard to pick against Tom Brady. The status of both Gronk and AB are still in question, but even if they don’t play, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll have another poor performance. The Giants’ defense isn’t to be trifled with, but with Tampa being back home on primetime, it just feels impossible to pick against them. It’ll be close, but I just don’t see the Giants pulling off this upset.

All stats taken from ESPN.