This week doesn’t have the best matchups on paper, but if there’s anything that this season has proven to us, is that any game can turn into an instant classic. And still, there are some great games waiting to kick off that I’m very excited to see, as always. The 2021 season is still scratching the surface of its unpredictability. I had another bad week in Week 4, going 9-7 to bring my season total to 37-26. I’m trying to do better, and hopefully this week gets me back on track. Let’s get into this week’s picks:
Rams 31-20 Seahawks 
Thursday, 8:20 PM EST, FOX
Thursday night’s matchup might seem like a great one on paper, but if you know me, you know I have a ton of problems with Seattle. Their offense hasn’t been playing its best ball, and their defense is still as bad as ever. It should be a nice bounce-back opportunity for LA, as this will be a much easier matchup for their offense to put up its usual numbers. Also, their defense should be able to shine by limiting an already thin Seahawks offense. Divisional games can always be close, but I think this is just a mismatch.
Falcons 30-23 Jets 
Sunday, 9:30 AM EST, NFL Network
Why the NFL would deliberately send this game to England to try and grow our game is beyond me. The one silver lining to this matchup is that it feels like points will be put up, so maybe our friends across the pond won’t be too bored. The Jets may be trending upwards after picking up a win last week, but I just don’t have faith in them to carry that momentum anywhere. This is a favorable matchup considering how terrible the Falcons defense is, but I think Atlanta has more playmakers on offense, and that will be the difference in this game. It’s not a unit that has been clicking, but they put up a solid performance against Washington last week, and I’m expecting to see more of the same on Sunday morning.
Packers 23-21 Bengals 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is actually a really good matchup. It feels like everyone is now getting a sense of how good the Bengals have been, but this will be their toughest test yet. The Packers are back to playing their style of football, and their defense has honestly been better than their offense. They’ll have their hands full with a Cincy offense that is filled with plenty of talented pass-catchers. That’s why I think Green Bay’s offense will be the deciding factor in this game. The Bengals defense isn’t as bad as it has been in the past, but this is still Aaron Rodgers we’re talking about. When his number is called upon, all he does is deliver, and I think that will be the difference on Sunday. But, if there’s anyone who can prove me wrong in a situation like this, it’s Joe Burrow.
Vikings 27-16 Lions 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
As I said yesterday, I’m done putting any faith in the Lions. You guys also know by now that I’m pretty fond of the Vikings, even with their scoreboard struggles this season. This should be a fairly easy one for Minnesota to get back in the win column. Detroit’s offensive prowess isn’t much of a threat, and their defense has been nothing short of Swiss cheese this season. I’m sure the Vikings offense is itching to put up big numbers after being stifled last week against the Browns. I expect an offensive performance similar to the ones we saw earlier in the season out of Kirk Cousins and the Vikes, and yet another loss for the kneecap warriors in Motown.
Broncos 23-17 Steelers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
It’s hard to make this pick on the Thursday before the game, since it’s uncertain whether or not Teddy Bridgewater will clear concussion protocol and play in this game. But, all signs are pointing towards him being available, so I’ll pick it with that in mind. The Broncos are just a better overall team than the Steelers are, and it’s reflected perfectly in both teams’ performances so far this season. Even against a good Pittsburgh defense, I see Denver doing just enough with the football in their hands to separate themselves late in this game. Moreover, the Steelers don’t do nearly enough on offense to inspire any confidence against a very stout Broncos D. I expect this one to be close, but I’m sticking with my gut and picking the better team to come out on top.
Buccaneers 28-17 Dolphins 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
I’m sure the Bucs are happy to have escaped the cold and rainy northeast to come back to the Sunshine State for this game. And I genuinely think it will affect their offensive performance. How could it not? Tom Brady should be back to his Brady ways, especially against a defense that hasn’t fit the bill at all this season. It should be a field day through the air for Tampa. And despite their seemingly never-ending defensive injuries, the Dolphins aren’t a very scary offensive opponent, so the Buccaneers should be just fine on that side of the ball as well. I don’t think this one will be close at all.
Saints 31-27 Washington 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Oh brother, this one should be fun. As it seems, neither of these defenses could stop a small child with their hands tied behind their back from picking up yards, so I expect to see a lot of points on Sunday in Landover. Both of these offenses have plenty of talent to light up the scoreboard, so the difference in this game will be the playmaking ability, or perhaps lack thereof, of the defenses. Washington has the 4th worst total defense in football, while New Orleans is 7th. Not much separation there. But, while it seems like Washington has the talent on that side of the ball to make a difference, they haven’t done so at all this year. This team hasn’t forced a turnover since September 12th, and they refuse to get off the field. While the Saints defense inspires little to no confidence, I’ve seen them put up 2 pretty good performances this season, so I’ll ride with them. Washington has to show me that they can play up to their talent before I trust that defense in any regard. If they can’t stop Jameis Winston, there will be hell to pay.
Panthers 26-20 Eagles 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This one could be fun. The biggest contingency for that will be the play of the Panthers defense. That unit entered last week as the best in football, statistically, but they got shelled by the Cowboys from start to finish, much like the Eagles did on the previous Monday. So, which Carolina defense will we get on Sunday? I think it will be somewhere in the middle, as the Eagles don’t pose nearly as much of an offensive threat, but they can still put up their numbers. In any case, Philly’s defense is just dreadful, so the Panthers should be easily able to put up plenty of points, with or without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. This is still a very solid unit, and Sam Darnold should have a nice bounce-back game.
Titans 25-24 Jaguars 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Yuck. I don’t even want to think about this game. The team that just lost to the Jets vs. the team whose coach spent his weekend getting twerked on. Do I have to? Fine. Give me the team with a pulse. I know it might seem like neither of those teams fit that description at this point, which is fair, but the Titans have too much talent to drop another game in this vein. It would be the most embarrassing thing to happen to this franchise since… ever. Plus, the Jaguars could very well come into this game and play terrible football considering all of the off-the-field distractions of this week. There is just no excuse for Tennessee to drop this.
Patriots 29-12 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
As it stands, the Texans are the punching bag of the NFL, and I don’t see this week going any differently. It’s still Davis Mills under center in Houston, and if you’ve paid any attention to him, you’d know that’s not a good thing. Plus the Patriots played arguably their best game of the year last Sunday despite losing, and I’m sure they’ll be itching to go out and get that win that evaded them. There’s arguably no better opponent to let out your hostility against and pick up an easy W against than Houston. As I said: punching bag.
Raiders 27-21 Bears 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
This is an interesting one. Justin Fields will be making his first start as the real starter in Chicago, and it’ll be against a Raiders team that might be a bit lost right now. They just suffered their first loss on Monday night in LA, and their defense struggled mightily. Fields didn’t have a standout game by any means against a weak Detroit defense last week, but he didn’t need to. Between that and the tough defenses they’ve faced this season, he hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do. Now, he’ll be without David Montgomery, so he’ll have to carry the load with his arm in this game against a very poor secondary. Will he light up Las Vegas? Or will it be more struggles? I honestly think it’s too hard to tell, especially when you consider how the Bears coaching staff is treating him. With that in mind, I’ll stick with the better offense that I know can put up points, especially at home. Also, the Bears defense hasn’t been very good, so I expect Derek Carr and the Raiders offense to return to form and put up some more big numbers. But, if this season has proven anything, it’s that anything can happen.
Chargers 23-20 Browns 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, CBS
This right here is my game of the week. The moment I saw this game on the schedule, my eyes lit up. There is just so much I’m excited to see. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are finally starting to realize their potential, and now they get to face a Cleveland team that is extremely solid overall with a defense that’s playing lights out football. It’s just such a great matchup. For me, there is one major matchup that differentiates these teams: the Browns offense vs. LA’s defense. The Bolts have been great defensively in every game they’ve played this season, limiting every single opponent to their lowest scoring output. The Browns struggled last week with a decent Vikings defense, so what happens when they face an elite unit like this one? If the Chargers take away the run, can Baker Mayfield win this game with his arm? I don’t think so. Moreover, I simply trust Justin Herbert to win this game more. He’ll be facing a relentless pass rush, but his offensive line has been sensational this season, so it eases those worries. I just think the Chargers have the upper hand in the crucial matchups within this game, and I also think they’re the better team. But this should be a great game, and I’m very excited to see it.
Cowboys 28-24 Giants 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
There truly is nothing in this world like an NFC East game on national television. They seemingly always deliver. For that reason, among a few others, I think this will actually be a great game. Both of these teams have a ton of momentum, as the Cowboys have won 3 in a row behind great offensive play and even better defense, while the Giants are coming off of an offensive explosion last week in New Orleans. I don’t have much faith in New York to keep putting up huge numbers, especially against a secondary that has been as good as Dallas’, but as I said earlier, divisional games always play out differently. It won’t be another insane game for the Giants, but I think they’ll do enough to stick around and make things interesting. Still, there’s no way I can pick against Dallas here. They’ve been too good as of late, and they’ve given me too much to like. Plus, New York’s defense isn’t built to slow down this offense in any regard. My mind is telling me this will be a blowout, but I just have a feeling that this one could come down to the wire. In any case, the outcome is not in doubt.
Cardinals 30-20 49ers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
All signs are pointing towards this being Trey Lance’s first start at QB for the 49ers, and if that’s the case, I’m honestly worried for him. This is not an ideal circumstance to make your first start. The Cardinals are the NFL’s lone undefeated team, and they are playing incredible football on both offense and defense. They just dismantled the Rams, a team that was the consensus best team in football after 3 weeks. Now, the seemingly unready rookie has to be thrown into the fire and try to win this game. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Trey Lance, and I have very high hopes for his future, but this might be a rough one. San Francisco is dealing with a plethora of offensive injuries, and against a secondary as tight as Arizona’s, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be. No matter what, he won’t outplay Kyler Murray, who should continue his MVP form against a defense that isn’t playing terribly, but is simply letting up too many points. Perhaps the rookie proves me wrong on Sunday, but I just don’t see it.
Bills 34-27 Chiefs 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
Sunday night’s matchup is a rematch of last year’s AFC title game, but the situation with these teams seems a lot different. The Bills are the better team as of right now, as they have ripped off a 3-game winning streak filled with explosive offense and suffocating defense, albeit against weak opponents. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been faced with real struggle for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, largely because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The offense is doing it usual thing, putting up the 2nd most yards and points per game in the league, but on the flip side, the defense is giving up the 2nd most yards (437.8) and points (31.3) per game. No matter how good your offense is, it’s nearly impossible to overcome that bad of defensive play. Meanwhile, the Bills have the #1 total and scoring defense. So, again, despite the Chiefs offense looking like themselves, this is no walk in the park. I will always Patrick Mahomes to do his thing and wow us with his playmaking, but Buffalo has just been better on both sides of the ball, and they have all the right things going for them right now. This pick isn’t just an indictment on KC’s defensive struggles, but it also speaks to how good I think the Bills are. I think they’ll prove it to you all as well on Sunday night.
Ravens 27-17 Colts 
Monday, 8:15 EST, ESPN
The Ravens have been overcoming their backfield injuries by becoming a prolific passing offense, as Lamar Jackson has been effortlessly airing it out over his last 2 games. Because of that, Baltimore has become less reliant on Jackson as a runner, which opens up the offense that much more. That was on full display last week as they ripped apart a Broncos defense that was the best statistical pass defense in football going into the game. So, this game should be another day at the office for them. Indy did pick up their first win last week, but it was against a Miami team that isn’t very good, and virtually handed them the game. I expect to see another big game for Lamar through the air, and I think it should be awesome once again. Then again, when isn’t he awesome to watch?
All stats taken from ESPN.
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