The 2021 NFL season is continuing to chug along at a rapid pace, and we’re already almost a quarter of a way done with the regular season. Even in the longest season in league history, things seem like they’re moving too fast. In any case, this week is no different than those that have come before it, because we’ve got some more great games on tap in Week 4, and I can’t wait for them to get going. I went 10-6 in Week 3, bringing my season total to 29-19. I would like to be doing much better, and luckily I have a very long season ahead of me to improve. Let’s get into this week’s picks:
Bengals 27-16 Jaguars 
Thursday, 8:20 PM EST, NFL Network
Thursday night’s jungle cat fight might not seem like much on paper, but I think this game has some potential to be somewhat good. It will at least be interesting. The #1 storyline is obviously the battle between the last two first overall picks: Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence. There is a difference, as Burrow seems to be doing very well coming off of last year’s injury whereas Lawrence has been struggling mightily to start his young career. These teams are also in very different positions, as the Jaguars are still trying to find their identity under Urban Meyer, while the Bengals look surprisingly good. This one should be easy for the team wearing orange. I’m hoping to see a good game, but you rarely get that with Jacksonville.
Washington 24-23 Falcons 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
How am I supposed to pick this game? Both of these teams have had identical seasons up until now: 1-2 to start the year with each team getting their lone win on a game-winning field goal against the Giants. It’s almost eerie. Neither team is doing anything particularly well to start the year either. So, what gives in a matchup like this? I honestly don’t know. I’m sticking with Washington because I like their talent across the board more, especially defensively, but that defense better start playing up to that talent level. I’m holding out hope that it happens, but I’m not counting on anything. If they do, this should be a fairly easy one. If not, it will easily be another loss.
Bills 34-13 Texans 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This one might be the ugliest game of the week. The Bills are playing red hot football, and the Texans are… the Texans. I will always give the NFL credit for its parity, but at a time like this, this is as big of a mismatch as there can be. Vegas seems to agree with me considering the 16-17 point spread. It will be the rookie QB Davis Mills once again for Houston, and against a team playing its best ball, it will be a rough, rough day. I expect another huge performance from Josh Allen and the Bills offense. Anything less will honestly be a disappointment.
Lions 23-20 Bears 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
Against all odds, someone has to win this game (yes, I know I used that line last week). At this point, the Lions deserve a win much, much more than the Bears do. Chicago’s dreadful, almost nonexistent gameplan last week nearly got Justin Fields killed in Cleveland, and the coaching staff doesn’t deserve anything good because of it. The Bears haven’t even named their starting QB for this game yet, so it could be Fields, Andy Dalton, or even Nick Foles. So, at this point, I simply cannot pick them. Moreover, the Lions have been a very scrappy team that is seemingly never out of a game, and for all of their heartbreak and struggle, they deserve a W. I hope they get it in this game.
Cowboys 28-23 Panthers 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This is one of the more fun matchups of the week on paper. One of the NFL’s surprising undefeated teams heading to Arlington to take on the red hot Cowboys. As I said yesterday, Carolina’s injury problems are a definite cause for concern. Being without RB Christian McCaffrey is going to limit this offense, as Chuba Hubbard isn’t exactly at that level. While I love their defensive front, the Cowboys offensive line has been playing good football so far, and I think Dallas will still be able to run the ball effectively. Even if that aspect of the game is taken away, I still trust Dak Prescott and that stacked WR core to get the job done airing out the football. The Panthers don’t exactly have the same talent at that position, especially with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson dealing with injuries. I’m not sure why I think this game will be close, but in any case, I’m confident in the Cowboys emerging victorious.
Dolphins 20-17 Colts 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
Both of these teams are in pretty crummy positions, but at least they have the benefit of being able to play one another on Sunday. Someone has to pick up a win and get their season back on track, even if that track isn’t a lasting one. Simply put, the Dolphins have shown me a lot more than the Colts have in order to give me confidence to pick them. They came all the way back last week against the Raiders and were very close to at least coming away with a tie. The Colts haven’t been competitive in any of their games this season, and against a pretty good Miami defense, this isn’t a situation that seems like it’ll get any better. Neither of these teams can afford a loss, and Miami seems much more situated to come away with a big win. Plus, Jacoby Brissett might be looking for a little personal revenge going up against his old team. I think he’ll have a nice game, and the Dolphins will get back to .500.
Browns 30-28 Vikings 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
This is honestly my most anticipated game of Week 4. These are two teams that I am higher on than anyone else I know, and I cannot wait to see them duke it out. On paper, the Browns seem like the much better team, but as I said yesterday, the Vikings could easily be 3-0, and people would be viewing them a lot differently. These are two red hot offenses, and it comes down to which defense can step up when it matters most. Both of these defenses are better up front than they are in the second level, but at the same time, both of these run games are so diverse and hard to stop that it’s almost impossible to predict who comes out on top. Minnesota likely has the more explosive passing offense, so why not them? My answer lies in what I saw out of the Browns defensive line last week. This is a unit that is hungry for the football, and if they can get after Kirk Cousins like they did last week with Justin Fields, then that will be the difference in this game. I don’t want to put all of my eggs in that basket, but that’s why I’m sticking with Cleveland.
Saints 24-16 Giants 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, FOX
This game will likely be a complete snoozefest, but I have no doubts about the outcome of it. The Giants are a tire fire that has nothing going for them on either side of the ball. The Saints might be inconsistent, but they have shown great promise on offense and even greater promise on defense. If the defense plays just as good as they did last week in Foxboro, then it should be an easy day at the office for the offense to simply hold onto the football and put together a few scoring drives and come out on top. This New York team is far too incompetent on both sides of the ball to do anything about that.
Titans 31-10 Jets 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Titans are playing some pretty good football right now, and even if they have some problems, this is nothing short of a bye week. The Jets are in the midst of one of the worst stretches of football I have ever seen, and I fully expect them to get ran over once again. Derrick Henry could run for 200 yards in this game with his eyes closed and his arms tied behind his back. If you have any Titans on your fantasy team, start them. It is going to be a field day for the team in navy. And it is going to somehow get even uglier for the Jets.
Chiefs 31-20 Eagles 
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
The Chiefs are visibly struggling right now, so it’s good that they get an easy bounce back game against a team like the Eagles. Philly can’t stop a nosebleed on defense, and against a KC offense itching for its next massive play, we could see some fireworks from Patrick Mahomes and company. While I have no faith in the Chiefs defense, the Eagles don’t exactly pose much of an offensive threat. All of their best work last week came in garbage time when they were playing catch-up. I expect a repeat performance of that this week. It might not be as much of a struggle early for Jalen Hurts and the Birds, but it will certainly be another uphill battle late.
Rams 27-24 Cardinals 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
This is easily the best game of the week on paper. Two 3-0 division rivals playing some of the hottest football in the league battling in the City of Angels for the right to sit atop the NFC West and keep their unbeaten streak going. It almost feels like Hollywood. This is the toughest test thus far for Arizona, and it’s not very close. On the other hand, the Rams just passed the test of all tests, and I think that’s the defining factor in picking this game. The Rams have nothing left to prove. They’ve just proven that they’re the NFL’s best team. The only thing they have to lose in this game is that crown. I’m not sure if the Cardinals have it in them to do what LA was able to do last week. Yes, their offense is a fireworks machine, but the Rams defense has done a great job of limiting big plays and keeping things in front of them. I think they will keep Kyler Murray and company in check, and their offense will do the rest. It will be a great game, but it’s hard to see the Rams losing.
49ers 30-20 Seahawks 
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST, FOX
The Seahawks clearly have a lot of problems that they’re trying to figure out. Unfortunately for them, this isn’t a game that they’ll get to do much of that in. Even in a loss last week, the 49ers finished the game looking very strong. They can’t afford to start as slow as they did again, but I doubt that will happen against a Seahawks offense that had a very hard time putting up points last week. Moreover, San Francisco’s defense is still the best unit in any game they play, and those Seattle struggles on offense will only continue in this one. The Seahawks just seem like a mess right now, and this is too difficult of a matchup for them to get back on track. I think this will be easy for the Niners, and I think the questions will only get louder and more frequent in Seattle.
Broncos 24-22 Ravens 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
This is one of the better games of the week as the undefeated Broncos host a Ravens team coming off a couple of emotional victories. All the makings are here for a very good football game. To me, this game comes down to one major matchup: the Broncos secondary vs. the Ravens WRs. Denver’s DBs have been sensational to start the season, albeit against rather weak opposition. Receivers have never been the Ravens’ specialty in the Lamar Jackson era, and last week proved that you can never count on them to help you win. So, this game will likely come down to Lamar having to beat the Broncos’ great defense on his own. Against most teams, I’d have faith in him to carry Baltimore to victory, but this Broncos defense is just too solid. Moreover, their offense is efficient and very careful with the football, and I think they will make the most of their opportunities and put Denver in a perfect position to win. Although I wouldn’t put it past Justin Tucker to nail another ridiculously long game-winning field goal in the high altitude.
Packers 31-16 Steelers 
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST, FOX
Like so many matchups we’ve seen this season, this game simply doesn’t hold the same weight it once did. These are two of the most iconic franchises in all of sports led by two legendary QBs. It was just over a decade ago that these teams played in a very entertaining Super Bowl, and their matchups since have always delivered. However, in 2021, this is a blowout waiting to happen. I honestly might be giving the Steelers too much credit here. Will they really score 16 points? That might be punching above their weight class. In any case, the rejuvenated Packers are playing with their tails on fire, and Aaron Rodgers is lighting teams up left and right. A Steelers defense dealing with some rough injuries will be his latest victim. Don’t be surprised if this one gets ugly early.
Buccaneers 26-17 Patriots 
Sunday, 8:20 PM EST, NBC
The prodigal son is coming home. You know the story by now. Tom Brady, the GOAT, the man who has shattered all of his expectations and storylines is returning to Foxboro to take on the team that he led to unprecedented success. And, for the first time, he’ll be going against his old coach, Bill Belichick, the man who was the Palpatine to his Vader for 20 years and 6 championships. Yet, for some reason, this game feels like it’s falling flat. And it’s because the Patriots aren’t very good. Their games this year have felt so… boring. That’s the best way to describe it. They are simply a boring football team that is frankly incapable of beating teams that are as good as them or better. And the Bucs are much, much better. Their offense has been scorching hot through 3 games, and Brady looks as good as he ever has throwing the football. They are definitely having some defensive issues, but they are sure to look good against an anemic offense like New England’s. I honestly don’t think this one should be close at all. The only reason it might be is if Belichick busts out the secret formula to stopping Tom that only he knows. And at this point, I doubt that exists. The whole world will be watching, but I don’t anticipate a very good football game on Sunday night.
Chargers 30-27 Raiders 
Monday, 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
This is such a fascinating game. The 3-0 Raiders traveling up to LA to take on a resurgent Chargers team coming off a massive win against the Chiefs last week. Derek Carr and his MVP-level play vs. Justin Herbert and his innate ability to rack up yards. Two prolific passing offenses with exciting, young defenses. I love this rivalry. And I think this is going to be another awesome installment. As I said yesterday, the Raiders’ inability to close out games is a big concern to me. The Chargers showed us last week that they will grab any and all opportunities to win football games, and I feel like Vegas’ defense isn’t strong enough to stop them from doing so once again. Not only do I feel like LA’s offense will have a generally good day, but in the clutch, I just don’t see them being stopped. Granted, the Raiders have arguably been the most clutch offensive team in the NFL so far this season, but they haven’t shown it to me on the other side of the ball like the Chargers have. It will be a fireworks show for both teams, and I expect big numbers from both Justin Herbert and Derek Carr, but I definitely trust one team more than the other when it matters most. And somehow, that team is the Chargers.
All stats taken from ESPN.
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