Welcome to the playoffs. It has been a long, tumultuous journey to get here, but we finally made it. This is a historic weekend in more ways than one, but the most notable thing is the addition of the 7 seeds, giving us 3 games on both Saturday and Sunday. It should be a blast, and I’m excited to see it all unfold. Wild Card Weekend has plenty of interesting matchups and some very intriguing storylines, and anything can happen in the postseason. I went 13-3 in Week 17, bringing my season total to 150-73-1. Not a bad way to end the regular season. Let’s get into my picks for the first round of the playoffs:
Bills 27-20 Colts 
Saturday, 1:05 PM, CBS
There isn’t a lot of doubt in anyone’s mind that the Bills are the hottest team in football heading into this postseason. They’ve won 9 of their last 10, with the only loss being on a miracle Hail Mary, and are playing out of their minds offensively as of late. QB Josh Allen is a true MVP contender, and while he might not win it, he has surely made his mark in this league. For these reasons, the Bills seem like the lock here. But the Colts have been one of the quieter good teams in this league in 2020. Their defense has been stellar all year long, and their offense has finally found their groove now that rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has emerged as a true RB1, and he is a great one. Run game and defense are the ways to win playoff games in my eyes, and I think the Colts are the better team here in those areas. But still, I just don’t know if this group is ready to beat a team as good as Buffalo. I think it will be very close, and defense will decide this game. I simply have to put my faith in the team that has looked so great recently. Being hot at the right time is so important, and no one is hotter than the Buffalo Bills.
Seahawks 20-17 Rams 
Saturday, 4:40 PM, FOX
This game is an absolute enigma for me. Both of these teams are so wacky and weird and inconsistent that it almost feels like both teams are going to lose. These teams met just 2 weeks ago in Seattle, and while that game was close throughout, the Seahawks separated and were able to win convincingly in the end. However, this is the playoffs, and the 3rd meeting between these teams this year. Anything can happen. The Rams will likely have to turn to backup QB John Wolford once again with Jared Goff still dealing with thumb issues. Wolford wasn’t great last week in the win over Arizona, but I don’t think he needs to be. LA’s defense will win or lose them the game. It won’t be much of a challenge for that unit, as Seattle’s offense has been absolutely sputtering lately, and they simply cannot get anything going. Their defense has stepped up in a massive way, making the second half of their season a complete flip of the first. If Goff was playing in this game, I think I would take the Rams. I just can’t put my faith in a backup QB with almost no NFL experience. The Seahawks will win, but it will likely be their last of the year. Whoever wins this game is getting blasted next week.
Buccaneers 24-20 Washington 
Saturday, 8:15 PM, NBC
This is another fairly wacky matchup as the 7-9 NFC East champion WFT hosts a playoff game against Tom Brady and the Bucs. Washington didn’t get the most convincing win in the world last week to get here, but they did it, and now they get a Tampa team that has been nothing short of explosive in the last month or so. Brady and the bunch are on absolute fire, and they haven’t even been fully healthy. Now they are, and it is a dangerous sight for the NFL. Washington will have their hands full, but at least they can put plenty of faith in their defense, which has been playing like the league’s best in the second half of this season. Rookie DE Chase Young has already solidified himself as one of the best defensive players in football, and the entire front seven has been wreaking havoc on QBs all year long. The Washington offense, however, is a very different story. It’s a unit that has dealt with a ton of shuffling and mediocrity all year long, but whenever Alex Smith is starting at QB, this team finds ways to win games. However, Smith has been dealing with a calf injury for the last few weeks, and it is clearly affecting him on the field. Washington will likely be rotating QBs on Saturday night with Taylor Heinicke getting in on the action. He looked good in his only playing time this year, but in the playoffs, things will be a lot more challenging. I can’t trust Washington to win this game with all the uncertainty at QB, but there is no shame in that. It’s Tom Brady after all. This has been a great year for the WFT, all things considered, and the future is blindingly bright in the nation’s capital. This isn’t the year, but watch out for this team in the future.
Ravens 34-24 Titans 
Sunday, 1:05 PM, ESPN
One of the better matchups of the weekend is a rematch of one of the bigger upsets in recent playoff memory from last year’s divisional round. The Wild Card Titans got the better of the 1 seed Ravens in that game, but now the script is much different. It’s Tennessee who will be hosting this game after stumbling their way into a division title. Despite being the lower seed and the road team, Baltimore has undoubtedly been the better team as of late, winning their last 5 games in emphatic fashion. Their offense is in a real groove right now, especially on the ground. QB Lamar Jackson needs no introduction, but rookie RB J.K. Dobbins has emerged as a bonafide RB1 in their offense, and it has taken it to new heights. The Titans have a star-studded offense of their own, as QB Ryan Tannehill has had a spectacular season in his first full year as the starter. RB Derrick Henry…. well, he’s King Henry for a reason. Henry absolutely plowed his way through defenses this year, becoming the 8th player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. It was a great year for the man who will likely take home the Offensive Player of the Year award. It will be a stout challenge for the Titans, as Baltimore’s defense is still as strong as it has ever been. They have been making life hell for offenses in the second half of their season, but this is their tallest task yet. As for Tennessee’s defense… not so much. This might be the worst defensive unit in all of football, as they cannot get any pressure on QBs and their secondary has gotten ripped apart all season long. The passing offense of the Ravens isn’t one to be scared of, but you better bring your A-game against a team that good. I simply don’t trust the Titans defense at all, and with no defense in the playoffs, you cannot go anywhere. Yes, Tennessee beat Baltimore earlier in the year, but it will be extremely hard to do that again given the way these teams are playing right now. I expect a huge game for the Ravens on the ground, and this group inspired by avenging last year’s team (and even Week 11’s team) will get the job done.
Saints 30-20 Bears 
Sunday, 4:40 PM, CBS
This is perhaps the most lopsided affair of the weekend, and for good reason. The Saints have been one of the NFL’s best teams all season long, and they have what is probably the best roster in the NFL from top to bottom. No matter who is playing at QB, this offense just churns out yards and points. A major reason for that is the incredible play of RB Alvin Kamara, who has lived in the endzone this year. Luckily for New Orleans, Kamara will be back this week after missing their Week 17 game due to COVID-19 protocols. He will be much needed against a Bears defense that has been playing very well. It has been the tale of 3 seasons for Chicago this year: the great start, the awful losing streak, and the late resurgence. This team has won 3 of 4 to get into the dance, thanks to some great, rejuvenated offensive play, and the aforementioned play of the defense. However, on both sides of the ball, I just think they’ll be overwhelmed. New Orleans’ defense is playing at an elite level, and that offense will finally be fully healthy. The Saints haven’t even played their best football yet, and it’s January. If they can hit that stride in the playoffs, then this team has a real shot at a title.
Steelers 28-19 Browns 
Sunday, 8:15 PM, NBC
The final game of Wild Card Weekend is the 3rd matchup between Pittsburgh and Cleveland this season, and the 2nd in the last 2 weeks. These teams met just a week ago, with the Browns edging out a win in a very close game despite the Steelers playing mostly backups. That rest was much needed for Pittsburgh, as the last month or so has been nothing short of disastrous for them. After an 11-0 start, things have fallen apart, and they now stumble into the playoffs sitting at 12-4. However, I have a sneaky feeling about them. I just trust in their playoff experience compared to the Browns, who haven’t been here in 18 years and have the least postseason experience on their roster of all 14 playoff teams. It doesn’t help that Cleveland will be without HC Kevin Stefanski, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week and won’t be with the team for this game. It will be a very tough test regardless for the Browns offense, which has been a good unit all year long, but has struggled mightily in 2 matchups with the Steelers. Even without players like S Minkah Fitzpatrick and DE T.J. Watt last week, Pittsburgh almost won, and their defense did a good job of containing the Browns. For me, that performance last week is the biggest indicator in how this game will go. I understand that the Steelers cannot run the ball to save their lives, and that this one-dimensional offense can only do so much. But combining all of the factors I’ve mentioned, this one is just going to slip away from Cleveland. It’s a shame for them, considering how awesome it is to finally see them back in the playoffs, but I just don’t see them pulling this out. It will take a great performance out of QB Baker Mayfield, and if you know me, you know I don’t expect that at all.
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