It’s finally that time of year. Championship Weekend is upon us in college football, and this year’s College Football Playoff has as much craziness in its selection as any season in its now-6 year history. Between COVID-19 cancellations, postponements, conference rule-bending, upsets, injuries, and everything 2020 had to offer, this season persevered, and now we’re just weeks away from another playoff. Some teams have seemingly already locked in their spot in the final four, but the other two are anyone’s game at this point. Let’s get into a preview of what could be a chaotic process for the Selection Committee, but should be a blast for us fans to watch.
The Committee’s job of getting the 4 teams right every single year is not an easy one. I can admit that. I’m almost always mad at the decisions they make, but if there’s one thing they’ve been able to do consistently, it’s get the 4 teams correct. This year, #1 Alabama and #2 Notre Dame have made 50% of that job extremely simple for them. With the two powerhouses sitting at 10-0 and already the top 2 teams in the country, they will be in the CFP no matter what the result of their respective conference championship games are on Saturday. However, from that point on, it gets just a tad bit tricky.
The current #3 team, Clemson, sits at 9-1, with their only loss being in the famous thriller against the aforementioned Fighting Irish in South Bend. For the Tigers, the outlook is very simple: win and you’re in. If Clemson is able to capture their 5th straight ACC title by avenging their loss and beating Notre Dame, then they will be one of the 4 teams playing for a national championship, as will their opponent.
The situation is very similar for the current #4 team: the Ohio State Buckeyes. It’s been a very rough ride for the Bucks in 2020, thanks to a seemingly unavoidable virus and awful decision making by the powers that be in the Big Ten. After a 3-0 start with some suspect play, the Bucks had 3 of their final 5 games cancelled due to COVID concerns, 2 of which not being their fault. The B1G determined, before the season began, that if a team plays less than 6 games due to cancellations, they wouldn’t be able to play for a conference title. Thankfully, that decision was rescinded, and Ohio State will be making the trip to Indianapolis to take on Northwestern in pursuit of a 4th straight B1G championship. Like their enemies in South Carolina, if Ohio State takes care of business and handles the Wildcats, they will be in the playoff. However, if they suffer an all-time upset and lose, considering how the committee has viewed them due to lack of games and some loose performances on the field, it’s safe to say they won’t be playing for a national championship.
The question with both Ohio State and Clemson is this: even with a loss or two, are they still two of the nation’s four best teams? I’d wager that most college football fans with IQs above their age would answer that question with a yes. You would think that in a season that has been so turbulent and filled with so much chaos, the committee would double down on their promise to put in the four best teams and throw away things like record. We’ve seen that plenty of times over the last few weeks with their weekly rankings, as SEC teams like Florida and Georgia have been given the benefit of the doubt over unbeatens from weaker conferences such as Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. That very question and this very situation is what could potentially make the committee’s job difficult after Saturday.
There are 4 teams currently on the outside looking in that will have to either do their job, hope and pray, or both on Saturday: #5 Texas A&M, #6 Iowa State, #10 Oklahoma, and #13 USC. Intuitively, TAMU would definitely get into the top 4 in the case of a Clemson or OSU loss, but should they? Yes, the committee has been regarding them very highly since their upset win against Florida, and you could assume that if a team above them were to slip, they’d simply take their place. But there are 2 things I would take into account with the Aggies. The first is this: assuming Alabama beats Florida on Saturday night, do we really want to see TAMU play a Crimson Tide team that already beat them by 28 in the regular season? My answer is no. I’d hope yours is too. Here’s the second thing: even with the same amount or less losses, are we sure TAMU is better than Clemson or Ohio State? Again, my answer is no. Not even close. The current top 4 is the clear cut top 4 in America, but it cannot be that easy for the committee. They have set a precedent that values wins, conference championships, and quality of play. However, as I said before, if there’s any year to bend the rules a bit, it has to be this year.
The other 3 teams have much less hope than the Aggies do. ISU and OU will clash in Arlington for the Big 12 title, and the winner will likely be ranked no higher than 6th, barring total chaos in the other conference championship games. With both teams having 2 losses, it’s simply too hard to see them jumping the other teams above them, especially based on the precedent that the committee has set so far this season. Also, much like TAMU, they are certainly not better than the top 4 based on the eye test alone. I do believe that both teams are very good, but their slips earlier in the season have costed them a chance at the playoff.
All the way out west, USC sits at #13 despite being 5-0, like Ohio State is. The Trojans will play for a PAC-12 title on Friday night, and should get it easily against Oregon. If they sit at 6-0 as an undefeated Power 5 champion, then it would be hard for them to be completely disregarded, once again considering the precedent that the committee has set. However, when you take into account the way that the committee has valued the PAC-12 this season, it’s impossible to see an avenue for USC to jump all the way up into a playoff spot. It’s unfortunate for a team that has looked rather impressive in 2020, but it is warranted for a conference that put play on hold for so long.
All 4 of these teams need quite a bit of help if they want to get anywhere close to the playoff. Unfortunately for them, I don’t see it happening at all. Every year, I take the liberty of projecting what the top 6 will be for all outcomes of relevant conference championship games heading into the weekend. Every year I’ve done this (which is 2017-now), I’ve gotten the top 4 right, with the exception of a few seeds being flipped. The thing about this year is that I have to try and put myself in the committee’s shoes. They make some very questionable decisions, and based on what they’ve shown us this season, I had to go against common sense. Here’s how I see things playing out for every single scenario during championship weekend, not entirely based on how I feel, but based on what the committee is likely to do:
As you can see, Alabama and Notre Dame make it in 100% of the outcomes, and the 4 aforementioned teams on the outside looking in make it in 0. More notably, Texas A&M gets a bid in every case that saw either Clemson or Ohio State losing. However, if both Clemson and Ohio State win their respective games, then A&M will likely be kept out, regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. Still, this means Texas A&M has a very good shot at making the playoff, which is just a sham. Clemson absolutely deserves it more than them, as they are clearly the better team, but it just seems unlikely based on this season’s weekly rankings. Again, I had to ask myself the vaunted question, “WWTCD?”: what would the committee do?
There isn’t a lot of chaos that can make the selection process very difficult this season. The way I see it, only 5 teams have real playoff hopes. If it was up to me, teams like Cincinnati, USC, and others would have better shots, but the selection committee isn’t a big fan of common sense, so that isn’t the case. There is obviously a dream scenario for the committee, which is one that sees the current top 4 getting in with a bit of shuffling with seeding. Based on my projections, there are 4 cases in which that can happen, with the biggest contingency being the ACC Championship Game. If Clemson defeats Notre Dame (and the other two games go to plan), then Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State will be your top 4 teams. It’s that simple. A lot of people see this being the case, but I’m not so sure. That being said, let’s get into my picks for Championship Weekend:
USC 31-20 Oregon 
Friday, 8:00 EST, FOX
As I stated above, this one should be easy for the Trojans. Oregon doesn’t even deserve to be playing in this game, only getting the invite due to COVID problems within Washington’s program, preventing them from playing. Oregon has not been nearly as good as promised this season, and are clearly still trying to figure things out in the midst of tons of opt-outs. USC has been on fire all season, especially offensively, led by star QB Kedon Slovis and a plethora of WR talent. That offense should carry them to victory, and their first PAC-12 title in 3 years.
Ohio State 38-21 Northwestern 
Saturday, 12:00, FOX
The Buckeyes must be one pissed off group. This is just their 3rd game in the last 6 weeks due to plenty of COVID problems both within the program and within opponents’ programs. The Game wasn’t played for the first time since 1917, and if it wasn’t for the B1G bending some rules, they almost didn’t get the chance to play in this game. Thankfully, the Bucks will be in Indy, and they will dominate. This group has been itching to play in recent weeks, and if their last game against Michigan State was any indication, this team is much improved and ready to play elite football again. Their defense finally seems to be figuring things out, and the offense has excelled all season long both passing and running the football. Northwestern has had a nice season of their own, riding an elite defense to their 2nd B1G West title in 3 years, but it won’t be enough to overcome Ohio State. Not only is the talent gap too big, but the Buckeyes are simply too inspired to be derailed just yet. They know they’re fighting for their season, and they will fight their way into the College Football Playoff.
Iowa State 30-27 Oklahoma 
Saturday, 12:00, ABC
The #6 Cyclones have been one of the surprise teams of 2020, and a big part of that involved knocking off Oklahoma earlier this season. I’m always cautious of taking the team that won the first matchup in a second one, but I feel confident in ISU. They have played like a better team than OU has for the majority of this season. Both teams started their years slowly, but have picked up plenty of steam. My main reason for taking Iowa State in this game is the fact that their running game, led by star RB Breece Hall, and their defense, have been so instrumental to their success this year. A team that can run the ball and play defense really has a good shot to beat anyone. And in the Big 12, it means a whole lot more.
Notre Dame 34-31 Clemson 
Saturday, 4:00, ABC
This is the big one. The November 7th game was the biggest game of the season, and this one is 10x more important. Now, I know what you’re thinking. “Clemson is playing Trevor Lawrence unlike in the first game! The Tigers are 10.5 point favorites! They won’t lose a second time!” Trust me, I hear all of that. But it really doesn’t mean much to me. True freshman QB D.J. Uiagelelei did a more than fine job as the starter for Clemson in the first game between these teams, and it certainly wasn’t his fault that his defense was gashed for 47 points. So, what difference does Lawrence make in that regard? I understand that he’s incredible, but it’s their defense that needs to step up the most. Notre Dame’s offense is no joke, as many college football fans would have you believe. They can run the ball extremely well with RB Kyren Williams, and QB Ian Book has shown a lot of improvement as a passer. Their outside threats and TEs are very big physical and can easily win battles against Clemson’s very talented DBs. The Irish defense is equally physical, and although they gave up 40 the first time around, they should be much sharper in this game. Clemson’s defense will certainly be improved as well, as they’ll be much healthier, and DC Brent Venables will have a much better gameplan. However, in a huge spot like this, I have to take the team that’s proven themselves in 2020, and that is undoubtedly Notre Dame. They’ve proven that they can beat Clemson already, and the Tigers don’t have a win that comes even close to that. Say what you want, but I’ve held this opinion for almost a month now. Notre Dame will win this game, and in effect, end Clemson’s season.
Alabama 45-27 Florida 
Saturday, 8:00, CBS
No need to overthink the room on this one. Alabama is the best team in America and it isn’t very close. Florida once had something to play for in this game, but last week, they quite literally threw their season away by losing to an LSU team that was starting future Panera workers at skill positions. The Gators will be much less inspired and the Tide will smack them in the mouth. Even if UF pulls off an incredibly unlikely upset, it won’t mean much. No matter what, Alabama will make the playoff, and Florida will not.
Given these picks, the playoff I believe we’ll see unveiled on Sunday afternoon is as follows: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Texas A&M and #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Ohio State. As I said earlier, I do believe Clemson is a top 4 team, but I don’t think the committee would put them in with 2 losses. It’s a shame, but it’s the system we have in college football. Moreover, here are my predictions for the New Years Six bowl games:
Regardless of what happens this weekend, the games, the selection, and the playoff itself should all be incredible. After all, this is college football. The best sport on the planet. I’ll be back when it’s time to predict the playoff itself. See you then.
Raza Talks Sports 