After 18 days and 66 games of March Madness action, it’s finally time for the ultimate game. #3 Michigan of the West Region will face #1 Villanova of the East Region to decide the 2018 Men’s Division I basketball national champion tomorrow night in San Antonio (9:20 PM, TBS).
Before we look ahead to the game, let’s see how both teams got to Game 67.
#3 Michigan:
John Beilein’s squad has had a historic path to the natty, but perhaps in a negative way. With their win on Saturday evening against #11 Loyola-Chicago, Michigan became the first time in tournament history to make the national championship game without facing a team seeded higher than #5. Michigan didn’t even play an opponent ranked higher than #6: #14 Montana in the first round, #6 Houston in the second round, #7 Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, #9 Florida State in the Elite 8, and finally the Ramblers in the Final Four. But don’t let that resume fool you. This Michigan team is stellar. They set a program record with 33 wins this year and won the B1G Tournament fairly handily, beating eventual #2 and #3 seeds in the big dance Purdue and Michigan State, respectively, on the way to their conference title. This team has size, strength, and experience. Even the younger players have been playing like veterans this tournament. Michigan wouldn’t even be here if it wasn’t for freshman Jordan Poole’s buzzer beating 3 pointer to beat Houston in the second round. The star of this team that provides all 3 of the characteristics I listed is junior Moritz Wagner. Wagner made a name for himself last year during Michigan’s mini-run to the Sweet 16 and has established himself as a major threat this season. Averaging 14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, he is a force to be reckoned with in the paint. In their Final Four game against Loyola, Wagner dominated the inside with 24 points and 15 rebounds on 10-16 shooting. Seniors Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson, the 2017-18 B1G 6th Man of the Year, are also major keys to the success of the Wolverines. This team prides itself on tough, physical defense, giving up just 62.9 PPG, the 8th best scoring defense in the country. They only gave up 57 points to a Loyola team that’s been excellent offensively this entire tournament. If they can play their signature defense and convert buckets on the other end of the floor, Michigan could have hardware in their sights.
#1 Villanova:
Ranked as the 2nd overall seed in the tournament and being one of the best basketball programs in recent years, it’s no surprise that the Wildcats have made it this far. Villanova will be playing for their second national championship in the past 3 years, and their 3rd overall in the very same state that they defeated UNC at the buzzer for their second title, their first since 1985. This team was picked by almost everyone to win their region, and after #1 Virginia’s first round stumble against #16 UMBC, Villanova became the easy favorite to win it all. This is a team that is extremely well rounded on both ends of the floor and can hurt you in several different ways. Led by junior guard Jalen Brunson (19p/3r/5a on 53/80/41), the 2018 AP Player of the Year, the Villanova offense is as explosive as we’ve ever seen. This team has beaten every opponent they have played in this tournament by double digits, the smallest margin of victory being 12. Scoring 86.8 PPG, Villanova ranks as the #1 scoring offense in the country. They can hurt you from the inside with big men like Eric Paschall and Omari Spellman, but are even deadlier from 3 point range. In their semifinal game against #1 Kansas, Nova drained 18 shots from downtown, a new Final Four record. The Wildcats boast 5 players who shoot at least 39% from the arc, from guards like Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo (SO) to forwards like Spellman and star Mikal Bridges (JR). This team will need to capitalize on every offensive possession, otherwise it may be a long night for the Big East champs.
How each team can win:
This is a classic battle of an explosive offense against a stellar defense. But, contrarily, it’ll be Villanova’s defense and Michigan’s offense that will decide this game. If Michigan can score efficiently on Nova’s defense, then their pack-line defense will feed off of it and contain Villanova’s offense. If the Wildcats’ defense can keep the Wolverines’ offense in check, then their quick bursts and shooting ability should be able to put together a few runs and pull away when necessary to secure a victory. This game will come down to a few possessions on both sides of the ball and be decided by inches. Who will emerge victorious?
My Prediction: #1 Villanova 72-66 #3 Michigan
I believe that Michigan’s defense will do their part and keep the Nova offense in check, but a few made buckets late in the game and some defensive stops will win the game for Villanova. I expect a game similar to last year’s natty between #1 Gonzaga and #1 UNC, just with more offense. Key players in this game will be Omari Spellman for Villanova and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman for Michigan. If Spellman performs anything like he has all tournament long, Villanova will be more than happy. Abdur-Rahkman needs an opposite performance of his game against Loyola on Saturday for Michigan to be comfortable.
This should be a great game. Hopefully this phenomenal tournament ends on a high note.
Raza Talks Sports 